A recent study published in the journal Earth’s Future by researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Rhode Island has confirmed that New York City is gradually sinking—also known as land subsidence—at an average rate of approximately 1 to 2 millimeters per year. While this rate may seem small, the cumulative impact over decades poses serious implications for one of the world’s most densely populated coastal cities.

The research identifies several contributing factors, with the immense weight of New York’s buildings being a significant one. The city’s infrastructure, which collectively weighs an estimated 1.68 trillion pounds (760 billion kilograms), exerts continuous pressure on the underlying layers of soft sediment, clay, and artificial fill. Over time, this pressure compresses the ground beneath, causing localized subsidence—particularly in areas not built on solid bedrock. Although the sinking is not uniform across the city, regions with softer soil compositions are sinking at a faster rate.

To measure this vertical land motion, the scientists used a combination of satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) and detailed ground observations. These advanced techniques allowed the team to produce a high-resolution map of New York’s subsidence patterns. Their results reveal that neighborhoods constructed on reclaimed land or artificial fill—such as parts of Lower Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens—are especially vulnerable. In contrast, areas anchored to Manhattan’s schist bedrock show significantly less movement.

While the natural geological process of subsidence has been occurring since the last Ice Age, the study emphasizes that human activity accelerates the sinking in specific locations. The additional load from high-rise buildings increases downward pressure, intensifying the rate of subsidence in already unstable zones.

Researchers also warn that this sinking must be viewed alongside another critical challenge: rising sea levels due to climate change. The combination of gradual land subsidence and higher ocean water levels significantly increases the city’s exposure to coastal flooding, storm surges, and extreme weather events. Previous studies from NASA, the NOAA Climate Program Office, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project that sea levels along the U.S. East Coast could rise substantially by mid-century, further compounding the hazard.

Experts stress that although New York is not at risk of disappearing beneath the ocean anytime soon, even small, incremental sinking can dramatically increase future flooding risks—especially for low-lying coastal neighborhoods such as the Rockaways, Red Hook, Coney Island, and parts of Staten Island. These areas are already grappling with increased storm impacts, as seen during Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

The findings underscore the urgent need for resilient urban planning, adaptive infrastructure, and long-term coastal defense strategies. This includes investing in sea walls, flood barriers, wetland restoration, improved drainage systems, and updated building codes designed to account for both subsidence and sea-level rise. Policymakers and city planners must integrate these scientific insights to protect New York’s residents, infrastructure, and economic assets from escalating climate-related threats.