President Donald Trump, facing mounting frustration over America’s worsening affordability crisis, has revived one of his more unconventional ideas: issuing rebate checks to Americans funded entirely by tariff revenue collected under his administration.

On Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social with a blunt message:
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

The pledge sounds simple and dramatic — but the path to making it happen is anything but straightforward.

What Trump Is Actually Proposing

Tariff rebate checks are not new territory for Trump. He has repeatedly hinted at the possibility, suggesting that the massive influx of tariff revenue could be returned directly to American consumers.

Back in August, he said the US was “taking in so much money” from tariffs that a direct payout to citizens might soon be possible.

Tariffs are technically paid by American importers, not foreign governments. However, those costs are often passed down through higher prices, meaning American consumers ultimately shoulder part of the burden. Trump argues that rebate checks would compensate the public for the economic strain.

The plan echoes the stimulus checks issued during the pandemic — once at the end of Trump’s first term in 2020 and twice under President Joe Biden in 2021. But there’s a key difference: Trump insists these new payments would come exclusively from tariff revenue, not from general federal funds or new budget allocations.

If implemented, this would be the first attempt in modern US history to return tariff revenue directly to households on a large scale.

The Treasury Department Isn’t Sold

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was cautious when asked about the proposal on ABC’s “This Week.”
He confirmed that no official policy plan currently exists, and he downplayed the idea that a $2,000 check is guaranteed.

According to Bessent, the “$2,000” Trump mentioned could take different forms — perhaps as compensation for lost revenue if the administration moves forward with plans to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and even Social Security benefits.

The ambiguity leaves open the question: Is Trump talking about rebate checks, tax relief, or a mix of both?

Who Would Qualify — and Is There Enough Money to Go Around?

The Treasury Department reports that the Trump administration has collected more than $220 billion in tariffs — a combination of new tariffs imposed by Trump and older ones that predated him.

Meanwhile, 163 million Americans filed tax returns in 2024, meaning $2,000 payments for all filers would cost roughly $326 billion. That’s over $100 billion more than all tariff revenue collected during Trump’s second term.

Even if wealthy Americans are excluded — Trump has said they would not receive payments — the math still doesn’t quite add up.

An income cap of $100,000, which is not particularly high by federal tax standards, would still leave around 150 million eligible adults. According to Erica York of the Tax Foundation, that would cost an estimated $300 billion, still well above available tariff funds.

Trump, however, insists there would be money left over — and he has big plans for it. In another Truth Social post on Monday, he said the remaining funds would be used to help pay down the nearly $40 trillion national debt.

Economists note this would only be possible if tariff revenue dramatically increases or if far fewer Americans receive checks than implied.

The Supreme Court Factor

A major legal complication is looming: The Supreme Court is reviewing the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose certain tariffs.

Roughly $100 billion of the tariff revenue Trump is counting on came through these emergency actions.

If the Court strikes down those tariffs, the government may be required to refund billions to US businesses — draining nearly half the available money for consumer rebates.

This scenario could create a logistical nightmare if rebate checks were already distributed, forcing the government to figure out how to return funds to companies after the fact.

Can Trump Implement This on His Own?

Almost certainly not.

While presidents have significant control over tariffs, direct cash payments to citizens require congressional authorization. That means Trump would need support from both chambers of Congress, including lawmakers who may worry about budget gaps, inflationary effects, or the precedent of using tariff revenue for direct payouts.

Even some Republicans have previously criticized stimulus-style payments, arguing that they distort the economy.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s proposal taps into a real economic concern — Americans are feeling squeezed by rising prices, and a $2,000 check sounds attractive. But the plan faces numerous hurdles:

• Tariff revenue is likely insufficient to fund universal payments.

• Legal challenges could wipe out a large portion of the money.

• Congress would need to formally approve any rebate program.

• The logistics of distributing checks while businesses might be owed refunds is highly complex.

For now, the idea appears more like a political message than a ready-to-launch economic policy. But as affordability remains a top concern for millions of Americans, the discussion is unlikely to fade anytime soon.