On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, cardinals gathered in the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave to elect the next pope. By 9:00 p.m., black smoke rose from the chapel's chimney, showing that the first vote had ended without a result. The moment drew reactions from people following the news around the world.

According to Vatican News, the ballot concluded without the election of a Pope. As the outcome remained uncertain, around 45,000 people gathered in St. Peter's Square, awaiting an announcement after 7:00 p.m. — but it wouldn't arrive until nearly two hours later.

The crowd reportedly began leaving the square soon after black smoke rose above the Sistine Chapel. Among those waiting were tourists hoping their visit would align with a historic announcement, as well as locals who had arrived after work and said they planned to return the following day.

Sharing in the anticipation was Deacon Nicholas Nkoronko from Tanzania, who stood among the faithful in the square. He said, "Our role here is to pray and to join with other Christians, other Catholics, to pray for the Holy Spirit to guide the whole process."

Nkoronko emphasized that the Pope's origin — whether from Africa, Asia, or America — was secondary to his spiritual leadership, stating that what the Church truly needs is "a holy Pope," someone who "will guide the Church and will be the pastor of the Church."

Online, public reactions varied sharply. One netizen wrote, "Swearing secrecy is not a good thing. This should be open. Secrets only leave room for deception." Another stated, "It is not worthy [sic] one to discuss with. Yet another election with no use."

Others questioned the process. One remarked, "I think these people are voting for themselves," while another asked, "took so long?"

One commenter expressed skepticism about the conclave's speed, predicting it could take months before a new Pope is elected. Another reflected on Pope Francis's legacy, suggesting that finding someone equally great may be difficult.

A different person offered a heartfelt prayer, asking for divine intervention and hoping the next Pope would be someone truly connected to the people. Someone shared mixed emotions — hopeful for the announcement of a new Pope, yet saddened by the end of Pope Francis's tenure.

Another observer acknowledged the expected outcome of the first ballot and offered well-wishes to the cardinals as they prepare for the next day's proceedings.

While the crowd reflected on the moment, the process inside the Sistine Chapel followed long-established rhythms, as explained by Church officials and scholars familiar with the conclave.

Kurt Martens, a professor of canon law at The Catholic University, anticipated that the first ballot would run late due to a combination of factors.

He cited the extended length of the homily by Cardinal Cantalamessa, "who has a tendency to preach long," as well as the drawn-out oath-taking process, which he said "took forever as they entered into conclave." Martens noted this was "much longer than last time around."

Martens added that the process unfolds at a measured pace, in part due to the age of many participants. "It's not like you have 20-year-olds running up to the altar, so that takes time," he said.

He also pointed to procedural demands, such as selecting revisers to verify the scrutineers' work. "So it's a lengthy process," he said, and later added, "So be patient. And extend your airtime a little longer."

While the first round rarely produces a result, it still serves a purpose. Bishop Robert Barron, founder of Word on Fire, noted that while "it's close to no chance" that a pope is selected during this time, the vote still matters.

He called it "an important one, almost certainly indecisive," but noted that it "will give a good indication of where the conclave is."

Meanwhile, Reverend Sam Sawyer, a Jesuit priest and editor-in-chief of America Media, emphasized that the conclave's secrecy is designed to shield the cardinals from outside influence. "It gives them the freedom to vote within their own conscience for the man they think is best suited to be the pope," he remarked.

He added that it also enables open and honest discussions among the electors, allowing them "to be really frank with each other."

Sawyer further noted the historical importance of confidentiality, "In the past, one of the reasons to protect the conclave this way is because it would come under political pressure or come under, you know, pressure from people who would basically hand the papacy down within families."

That protection is reinforced by the rigid structure of the conclave itself. As detailed by Vatican News, each stage of the election follows a strict and centuries-old procedure.

Cardinal electors receive ballots printed with the Latin phrase "Eligo in Summum Pontificem." They write the name of their chosen candidate, fold the ballot, swear an oath, and place it in a chalice at the altar using a plate.

For those unable to approach the altar due to illness, a scrutineer deposits the vote on their behalf. If a cardinal is too unwell to be in the chapel, three designated infirmarii carry a sealed box to their quarters to collect the ballot, then return it under strict procedural safeguards.

After all votes are cast, scrutineers confirm the count and read each name aloud. The ballots are then threaded together and burned in a cast-iron stove. A second stove, installed in 2005, releases the smoke through the chimney. Chemicals added to the fire produce black smoke if no Pope is elected and white smoke when one is.

To elect a Pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority — at least 89 votes from the 133 electors. Up to four ballots are held each day. If no decision is reached after multiple rounds, the process includes scheduled pauses for prayer and reflection.

After 21 inconclusive votes, only the two leading candidates remain eligible, though they cannot vote themselves, and the two-thirds threshold still applies.

With the first vote behind them and black smoke confirming no consensus, attention now turns to the days ahead and to the figures who may shape the Church's future.

The death of Pope Francis on April 21 triggered a sacred and centuries-old process to select his successor.

As this process unfolds, the choice of a new pope will be influenced not only by the Church's current challenges, but also by those seen as capable of leading it forward. A closer look at the leading contenders offers insight into the possibilities ahead.

The Leading Contenders for the Papacy

As the College of Cardinals prepares to vote, 135 cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the conclave. Among them, some potential successors have emerged, each bringing unique experience, theological perspective, and global representation.

Cardinal Peter Erdo – Hungary

Erdo, 72, is the Archbishop of Budapest and one of the most senior Catholic leaders in Central Europe. He is a canon lawyer and leads the Church in a country where most of the population identifies as Christian. Erdő is known for supporting the pope's efforts to build stronger ties with Orthodox Christians.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo – Democratic Republic of Congo

The Archbishop of Kinshasa and president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, Ambongo, gained international attention by leading African bishops in unanimously rejecting Fiducia Supplicans, a 2023 Vatican declaration on blessings for same-sex couples.

Cardinal Mario Grech – Malta

Grech, 68, serves as Secretary General for the Synod of Bishops. A canon lawyer by training, he has played a central role in reshaping Church governance to be more consultative and inclusive, aligning with Francis' vision.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin – Italy

At 70, Parolin is the Vatican's Secretary of State and a seasoned diplomat. Often seen as the second-most powerful figure at the Holy See, he has remained a key presence throughout Francis's pontificate, though he lacks pastoral experience.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa – Jerusalem

The 60-year-old Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa, has earned respect for his pastoral leadership and public engagement during the Israel-Hamas conflict, including visiting Gaza amid the violence.

Cardinal Luis Tagle – Philippines

Tagle, 67, is pro-prefect for the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples. Nicknamed the "Asian Francis," he is known for his missionary zeal, care for the marginalized, and inclusive approach to LGBTQ Catholics and those divorced and remarried.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi – Italy

Zuppi, 69, is the Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops' Conference. Recognized for his work among the poor and his support for modernizing the Church, he is inclusive of same-sex couples and promotes interfaith dialogue.

Cardinal Anders Arborelius – Sweden

At 75, Arborelius is the Archbishop of Stockholm and the first cardinal from Scandinavia. A convert from Lutheranism, he is a traditionalist on issues of gender and sexuality, and advocates for environmental stewardship.

Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix – Canada

The 67-year-old Archbishop of Quebec has a background in missionary work and seminary education in Colombia. He is considered a strong pastoral leader with solid managerial experience.

The diversity of profiles among these men reflects a wide spectrum of priorities within the Church. Their names have prompted reflection and analysis from those closely observing this transition.

What Analysts Are Watching

Beyond résumés and reputations, Vatican analysts closely observe the ideological and strategic forces shaping this election. Senior Vatican analyst George Weigel described this conclave as unusually open.

"This is gonna be a very open process, it seems to me," he said. "Two things are most important — one, does this man communicate a vibrant, energizing face? And secondly, can he govern?"

Christopher White, a Vatican analyst, said the Church is facing a crucial decision. "I think it's fair to say the Church is at a crossroads right now," he explained. The cardinals must decide whether to continue with the reforms Pope Francis began — "opening the Catholic Church up to the modern world" — or take a different direction. "That's the big question the cardinals will face when they have the backdoor meetings in the coming weeks," he said.

White pointed out that Francis named around 80% of the men who will elect the next pope. "Because of that, it's fair to share they mostly share his same priorities," he added.

When asked about Italian contenders, White said, "For a long time, there's been an appetite to resist giving the papacy back to the Italians. We have a Polish pope, a German pope, and then an Argentinian pope. Is this a moment for the Italians?"

He noted that if an Italian is chosen, "I think Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who is Pope Francis' Secretary of State, his top diplomat — he is a contender. He has name recognition, and so he has to be taken seriously." But he cautioned that Parolin does not have pastoral experience. "For Pope Francis, he said he wants leaders to have the smell of the sheep, to be with the people — and so it's hard to square that vision with Parolin's résumé," White remarked.

White also commented on Pizzaballa, saying his name has surfaced because "he is very well aware of the geopolitical circumstances of the moment."

Turning to Tagle, White responded, "Cardinal Tagle was a frontrunner in 2013. In recent years, he's been referred to as an Asian Pope Francis because of his concern for the poor, his own sort of emphasis on humility. He's got the charisma, the wow factor that some people are really looking for in the next pope."

White noted that while Tagle is admired for his charisma and pastoral strengths, some cardinals are expected to examine his management record during the selection process.

When asked about North American candidates, White mentioned two. "Cardinal Robert Prevost, who's the head of the Vatican's office looking for bishops around the world — he's Chicago-born but spent most of his life outside of the United States. I think that makes him someone who knows how the Vatican works from the inside. He's not really viewed as an American, which makes him an intriguing possibility," he stated.

He also referred to Cardinal Lacroix, saying he "is seen as a real manager, who sort of shares the pope's vision and pastoral priorities but more emphasis on government."

According to a report by "Today," Cardinal Erdo is seen as a leading conservative voice and reportedly enjoys strong support among European cardinals. He is also considered politically connected, maintaining close ties with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.