Elon Musk has long been outspoken about the dangers of declining birth rates, repeatedly claiming it could soon become “the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years.” His stark warning, once dismissed as exaggeration, is now taking on chilling accuracy as entire countries grapple with falling fertility and rising death rates.

Back in 2022, Musk used his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to post: “Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming... mark these words.” At the time, many critics accused him of fearmongering. But fast forward to 2025, and his warnings seem more urgent than ever.

On August 19, Musk reposted a message from another X user, amplifying their apocalyptic view:
“The population isn’t ‘collapsing’. It has collapsed. The shoreline is receding and no one understands the tsunami about to hit us. As US population goes it will be impossible to redevelop. Automation won't replace your customers.”

Adding his own commentary, Musk wrote: “I’ve been warning about this since the turn of the century.”

Japan at the Center of Musk’s Concerns

Musk’s most recent remarks were specifically aimed at Japan, a nation with a population of around 124 million. According to official statistics, the country is on course to lose nearly one million people by the end of 2025 due to a lethal mix of low fertility, rapid aging, and high death rates.

Japan has long struggled with a shrinking workforce, a falling marriage rate, and younger generations delaying or forgoing children altogether due to economic and social pressures. Musk has repeatedly cited Japan as a warning sign for the rest of the world—arguing that if such a technologically advanced society cannot sustain its numbers, others will soon follow.

Public Reactions: From Criticism to Solutions

Musk’s posts sparked heated debate online, with thousands weighing in on why people are having fewer children. One user snapped: “Maybe if billionaires were not hoarding all of the wealth we would be more inclined to have more children.”

Another emphasized the cultural side of the issue: “The low birth rate trend is much easier to understand when women are just people. Women are people with ambitions, dreams, fears, hopes, etc. People who want to live full lives and not be relegated to just one function in life. If you want women to have more babies, make sure they can do so without giving up all their other dreams.”

A third person offered a practical perspective: “Then incentivize having babies! Currently our younger generations are marrying later (if at all), and juggling the high costs of healthcare vs. the expense of buying a home. Wages aren’t supporting both options.”

Musk’s Personal Role in the Baby Boom

Interestingly, Musk seems determined not just to warn the world but to contribute personally to population growth. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has already fathered 14 children with four different women.

According to The Wall Street Journal, leaked text messages between Musk and MAGA influencer Ashley St. Clair—believed to be the mother of one of his children—revealed his unconventional family strategy. In the messages, Musk reportedly wrote: “To reach legion level before the apocalypse we will need to use surrogates.”

For context, in Ancient Rome, a legion referred to a unit of around 5,000 soldiers. Musk’s reference suggests he envisions building a family of staggering size, perhaps as a symbolic stand against the collapse he warns about.

The Global Implications

Demographers argue that Japan’s population crisis is a preview of what’s coming to many countries across Europe, North America, and East Asia. Declining birth rates combined with aging populations could lead to economic stagnation, labor shortages, and spiraling healthcare costs.

While some see Musk’s warnings as dramatic, others believe he is raising awareness of an existential issue. If the trend continues, entire nations could face a future where there are simply not enough people to sustain their economies—or even their cultures.

As one demographer bluntly put it: “Musk might sound alarmist, but he’s not wrong. The collapse is already here.”